Contents

Introduction

Finding Value

Bookmakers Odds

A Typical Day For This Value Hunter

The Tissue

Working Out Odds

Comparing Odds

Points To Remember

Introduction

Value is to horse racing punters what the Holy Grail is to relic hunters. Everyone wants it, many claim to have found it and very few truly know what it is.

In betting, value is placing a bet on a result which you believe is certain to happen when everyone else thinks it won’t. Now that is much easier to write than to do. Because if something looks like good value to you then the chances are that it will look like good value to others as well.  And in betting when that happens something won’t stay good value for long. The betting market is driven by money and if a lot of money is placed on one horse then you can be sure that the price of that horse will come down.

Finding value is not an easy process. If you are looking for a book that is going to show you how to find value with a cursory look at a race card for 5 minutes, then this isn’t the book for you. Yes, I have tried to make it simple, easy to follow and logical. I have also created a structure which over time will become second nature to you. The reality though, and I am being totally honest here, is that in studying a race card and working out which horse is good value and which isn’t you will need time, peace and quiet and the ability to focus.

In this book I am sharing with you the process I go through to find value on a race card. I spend a large part of my life looking at race cards because, although I don’t rely solely on betting for a living, it makes up a proportion of my income every year. I guess I am what you would call a semi-professional bettor, one of the band of men and women who make a reasonable amount of money every year from betting activity. I’m not in the big league by any stretch of imagination, my bets are quite modest in comparison to others, but I make consistent profits. I am in the 2% of bettors who has made money at the end of every year.

Finding Value

A simple fact, and yet one that is rarely understood, is that you will not make a profit betting on horses unless you can find value. Many people believe that if they find a system that is profitable they will automatically make a profit, but they won’t. They will only make a profit if the bets represent good value.

Let me illustrate what I mean by giving you an example.

It is an undisputed fact that 30% of all horse races are won by the horse that starts off as the favourite. Knowing this we can assume that favourites broadly speaking win one race out of every three. That 30% is not a regular 30%, on some days the favourite may only win 6 of the 40 races contested whereas on another day it may win 18 of the 40, but let us for the purpose of this example say that out of the 40 races running today the favourite will win 12 of them giving us the 30%.

Let us assume now that you are following a system where you are backing the favourite in every race. You know that favourites win 30% of all the races so can reasonably expect to have backed the winning horse in 12 of the 40 races that are being contested today. If you are wagering £50 on each race your total investment on the day is £2000 and so to make a profit, any profit, you need to ensure that those 12 anticipated winners provide you with a return of more than £2000.

To ensure this, each horse that wins will need to have been backed at an average price of 5/2. The problem though is that favourites are often at much shorter odds than this. If I use the prices for the races being contested ask am writing this today as an example, and today is not an unusual day as racing goes, only 12 races of the 41 that are running have favourites at this price or over. All of the others are much shorter odds making the average starting price of the favourite is much less than 5/2. Now that is fine if the winning favourites are the ones with the longest price but sods law being what it is that is probably unlikely.

Moving forward a few hours let us check the results for those races. Interestingly today was a good day for favourites and out of 41 races in the UK, 16 of them were won by the starting price favourites. Our mythical bettor, following this system, would have been very happy. Or would they? A quick calculation shows me that assuming a bet of £50 was made on each race, for a total investment of £2050 they would have received a return of £1989.15. They would have lost money because there was no value in the bets that they had made.

Bookmakers Odds

Value is difficult to find because the odds are stacked against the punter. In theory if there are four horses in a race each of the horses has an equal chance of winning the race. Of course that doesn’t take in to account all the variables that go in to making one horse better than another but four horses, all being ridden by an experienced jockey, all carrying the same weight, starting at the same starting point on a race course, all running on the same ground and for the same distance should in theory have an equal chance of winning. They therefore have a 1 in 4 chance or to put it another way a 25% chance of winning. In odds this would be displayed as 3/1

If you were to take a quick look at this imaginary race card though you would see something different. Again assuming that all the horses had an equal chance you would likely see the odds stated for each horse at 5/2.The bookmakers will have overstated the chances of each horse

There is a very simple reason for this which is to ensure that the bookmaker makes a profit no matter what. If the bookmaker had advertised the true odds of each horse at 3/1, and four people had each backed one of the four horses to the tune of £50 the bookmaker would have taken in £200 from the four punters collectively and paid out £200 to the winner, in effect meaning they are doing the work for nothing. Advertising the prices at 5/2 at least means that although they are still taking in £200 they are only paying out £175 and taking £25 profit for themselves. I have no issue with this as if the bookmaker wasn’t making a profit, there would be no point in them doing the work and therefore no opportunity for anyone to have a bet.

In saying that if every horse did have an equal chance, like the example above, then a punter would never be able to find value. Fortunately though, when studying a race card it is clear that the variables that come in to play in horse racing means that each horse has a very different chance. Using a four horse race again let us look at the prices in a more realistic example

Horse A 6/4

Horse B 7/4

Horse C 5/1

Horse D 5/1

Translating these odds in to percentages we can see the following

Horse A has a 40% chance of winning

Horse B has a 36% chance of winning

Horse C has a 17% chance of winning

Horse D has a 17% chance of winning

Adding the percentages together gives us 110% telling us that the bookmakers have over stated the chance of each horse in order for them to be able to make a profit. The true chance of all horses in a race should always add up to 100%. We can reasonably assume then that the bookmakers believe each horse has the following chance, meaning on the face of it that there is no value in backing any horse because its chances of winning have been over stated in the odds

Instead of a 40% chance of winning, Horse A has a 36% chance of winning meaning the odds should be 7/4 rather than 6/4

Instead of a 36% chance of winning, Horse B has a 33% chance of winning meaning the odds should be 2/1 rather than 7/4

Instead of a 17% chance of winning, Horse C has a 15% chance of winning meaning the odds should be 11/2 rather than 5/1

Instead of a 17% chance of winning Horse D also has a 15% chance of winning meaning the odds should be 11/2 rather than 5/1.

For you though, as the punter you may be able to find value in this race. Value comes from you believing, after careful research and analysis that a horse has a better chance of winning than other people believe. If everyone believes that the odds are wrong in a morning you can be sure that very quickly the odds will change as more and more people place their money on the horse in question. That is why value can be so elusive to find and there are very few opportunities to get it. If you have worked out that Horse A is so superior and each of the other 3 has no chance, that rather than a 40% chance of winning its chances are nearer 70% then you would happily place a bet at odds of 6/4 because you believe  the true odds should be much shorter. If on the other hand you know that the last few races that Horse C has run have been on totally unsuitable surfaces, the trainer has been testing it over various distances and it has now returned to a course and distance that it has done well at in the past, then you may believe that this horse has a better chance than the 17% that is advertised. You therefore may be very happy to take the 5/1 offered as you may think the horse has a 25% chance of winning the race and the true odds should be closer to 3/1.

In this book then I am going to share with you how I find value. As I have already explained it can be time consuming, so I will start off my talking you through my typical day.

A Typical Day For This Value Hunter

I get up early, normally around 5.30am and certainly no later than 6.00am. I want to have analysed the day’s race cards and identified the horses I believe have a good chance of winning well before the day’s racing starts. After pouring myself a strong black coffee I sit at the kitchen counter with my laptop open and log on to a website showing the days racing.

My first job of the day is to quickly search through all the race cards to identify which races provide the best opportunity for value. On any given day, depending on the day of the week and the time of year, there can be any number of races between 20 and 60. It is not possible, even at the hour that I get up, to analyse every race of the day and so I am looking for handicap races with more than 9 runners as experience has shown me that it is these races which are the best hunting ground for value. If there are less than 9 runners then I leave the race alone as I tend to back value bets on an each way basis and I do not want to risk one horse being withdrawn from an 8 horse race which would leave me with a bet on only two places rather than three.

Once I have identified the races where value may be had I systematically go through each card in turn to create a tissue. A tissue is a race card where I have worked out the likely odds of each horse winning the race. Tissues are not as complicated as many people believe them to be and later in this book I am going to share with you how I create mine. There are many different approaches that you can take but the aim is to have identified the likely percentage win chance for every horse in the race.

Normally I am assessing any number of races between 10 and 25 and it is a lengthy and time consuming process which will take me a good few hours. If there are evening races I will look at these last, as I have already said I aim to have my tissues created well before the day’s racing starts.  Once I have created my tissue I will assess my prices against those of the bookmakers.

In assessing the odds of a horse I use an odds comparison site. It is amazing how odds can vary between bookmakers, especially a couple of hours before a race starts. As an example today a horse that I have on my tissue at 7/2 is available at various bookmakers at odds of between 3/1 and 5/1. Obviously at 3/1 it doesn’t look good value but at 5/1 it represents excellent value and is well with the bet. I am not looking to compare the odds of all the horses, a common mistake that many value hunters make, only those I think have the best chance of winning.

If I see odds that are favourable I will place a bet straight away. If not then I will make a note in case the odds drift prior to the race. If the odds are widely different, for example if I believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning (odds of 3/1) and I can get odds of 16/1 or 20/1 (which does occasionally happen) then after I have placed my back bet I may try and place a lay bet at a middle point of around 9/1 in case the odds shorten dramatically prior to the race and I get the opportunity for a no risk bet.

That then is my betting activity completed for a few hours. If I can I will keep an eye on the odds throughout the racing in case odds that were not good value in the morning drift but this sometimes isn’t possible as I have other activities to do, writing being one of them. I will log on again in the evening to tally up my wins and losses and write up my records which is very important, and sadly an activity very few people bother to do. All in all I have probably spent a good 5 or 6 hours in total, extensive I know but ultimately rewarding if it is making you a profit.

The Tissue

In looking for value you need to know where and when to look. There are many different types of races that are run over the course of a year and some races lend themselves much more to finding a value bet than others.

Races are split broadly in to two different types, handicaps and non-handicaps. What follows is probably going to be the most simplistic explanation of the differences you will ever read but for the purposes of this book it is sufficient. Non-handicap races are run with horses of a similar ability or background whereas handicap races will have horses of different ability which are then penalised so that they in theory they have an equal chance of winning. I liken a handicap race to a 100 metre sprint between me and Usain Bolt where he has had his legs tied together and I have a rocket tied to my back.

Around 60% of all races run are handicap races and these are the races which give you the punter the best chance of finding value as it is in these races that the horses should be evenly matched and therefore have an equal chance of winning. In a non-handicap race the likely winner will come from the best horses in the race normally at very short odds. Handicap races can throw up surprises and it is here that you should be seeking your value bets.

Once I have found the races which offer the greatest likelihood for value I can start to create my tissue. When creating my tissues I use a standard scoring system to get my odds for each horse. I am not a mathematician and what I do is not rocket science. I am well aware that all the bookmakers employ highly skilled and educated individuals and pay them a not inconsiderable amount of money for them to create their tissues and they will no doubt look with scorn at my approach. All I will say is that a look through some of my results over the last week show that my tissue is just as likely to be right as theirs is.

My approach to creating my tissue is highlighted below. I have shared it with you in this book as an example of what factors need to be considered in forming a tissue. It is not a recommendation and I am not advocating that you follow my approach. When creating my tissue and working out a points score for each horse I use several factors. Each of them are treated individually but to summarise they are:

Weight

Official Rating

Speed Rating

Trainer

Jockey

Form

Additional Factors

Let us look at each of them in turn

Weight

As I have already said, the theory behind a handicap race is that every horse should have an equal chance of winning the race. The handicappers who try to ensure that this happens would have done their job right if every horse crossed the winning post at exactly the same time in a dead heat. If this were to happen it would be a complete disaster so as punters we have to be eternally grateful that the handicappers so often don’t get this right.

The only way, legally anyway, that a horses can be deliberately evenly matched is by adding weight to the horse. This is done by adding lead weights to the saddle cloth. The greater the weight burden the more the horse has to overcome when running, Looking at the race card you can easily see which the handicappers believe to be the better horses as they will be at the top of the card and carrying the greatest weight. The worst horses in the race, in the eyes of the handicappers anyway, will be at the bottom carrying the least weight.

This information provides me with the first score that goes against each horse’s name.

Let us look at a typical, fictitious race card so that I can show you how I score this.

Name of horse Weight carried

Alpha Storm 11st 6

Bravo Moon 11st 4

Charlie Champ 11st 1

Delta Brave 11st 1

Echo Dreams 10st 9

Foxtrot Freddy 10st 9

Golf Heaven 10st 8

Hotel Paradiso 10st 5

Indian Summer 10st 4

Juliet Balcony 10st

The first score then derives from the placement of the horse on the race card. Remember the horse carrying the most weight is considered to be the best horse in the race, the horse carrying the least weight is considered to be the worst. Therefore the horses need to be ranked with the top horse getting the highest points and the lowest horse getting the least.

The one problem with this is that if I was to do this in strict order, for example using the table above giving Alpha Storm 10 points and Juliet Balcony 0 I am not taking in to account the differences between the weights. Look again at the table. There is only 2lbs difference between Alpha Storm and Bravo Moon but a 6lbs difference between Delta Brave and Echo Dreams. Using a straight forward number ranking this would equate to a 1 point difference in both cases which doesn’t take in to account the obvious bigger difference in ability that the handicapper believes there is between Delta Brave and Echo Dreams over Alpha Storm and Bravo Moon.

To ensure that the points score accurately reflects the differences between weights I take the difference between the top weight and bottom weight, which in this case is 20lbs. If the top weighted horse is to receive 10 points and the bottom 0 I then need to work out how much of a points difference equates to each 1lb in weight.

10 divided by 20 equals 0.5 so for every pound less in weight the horse is carrying it will receive 0.5 less in a score. The table below shows the scores that each horse is awarded using this scoring method

Alpha Storm 11st 6-10 points

Bravo Moon 11st 4              -9 points

Charlie Champ 11st 1-7.5 points

Delta Brave 11st 1-7.5 points

Echo Dreams 10st 9-4.5 points

Foxtrot Freddy 10st 9-4.5 points

Golf Heaven 10st 8              -4 points

Hotel Paradiso 10st 5-2.5 points

Indian Summer 10st 4-2 points

Juliet Balcony 10st-0 points

The formula is relatively easy with 20 points and 10 runners but the principle is the same no matter how many runners and what the point difference is. Say I am looking at a race with 13 runners where the points difference between the top weighted horse and the bottom weighted horse is 27lbs. I always using a scoring scale between 10 and 0 so in this instance I would divide 10 by 27 meaning that if the top horse was to get 10 points and the bottom 0, each 1lb in weight equates to .37 which I would round up to 0.4. This would mean that the top rated horse would still get 10 points but if the next highest weighted horse was 2lbs lower it would get a score of 9.2 and so on down to 0.

Scoring horses like this is all very well but I have not taken in to account the additional weight that the better horses are carrying as a penalty. To do this I add up all the weights for each horse and divide by the number of horses to get the average weight. In the example race card above this is 10 St 10lbs. I then use the following formula to moderate the score:

If the weight the horse is carrying is within 2lbs of the average, either up or down I add 2 points to the score

If the weight the horse is carrying is between 3lbs and 7lbs lower than the average I add 3 points to the score

If the weight the horse is carrying is more than 8lbs lower than the average I add 1 point to the score

If the weight the horse is carrying is between 3lbs and 7lbs higher than the average I take 1 point off the score

If the weight the horse is carrying is more than 8lbs higher than the average I take 2 points off the score

Using this formula would result in the following scores

Alpha Storm 11st 6. 10 points changes to 8 points

Bravo Moon 11st 4              . 9 points changes to 7 points

Charlie Champ 11st 1. 7.5 points changes to 6.5 points

Delta Brave 11st 1. 7.5 points changes to 6.5 points

Echo Dreams 10st 9. 4.5 points changes to 6.5 points

Foxtrot Freddy 10st 9. 4.5 points changes to 6.5 points

Golf Heaven 10st 8              . 4 points changes to 6 points

Hotel Paradiso 10st 5. 2.5 points changes to 5.5 points

Indian Summer 10st 4. 2 points changes to 5 points

Juliet Balcony 10st. 0 points changes to 1 point

Summary

Using a scoring scale of 10 to 0, where the highest weighted horse is rated 10 and the lowest 0, I award points to each horse depending on the weight the horse is carrying. I then moderate the score based on average weight.

Official Rating

For my second score I haven’t quite left weight as I turn to the official rating that has been given to the horse. The weight a horse carries is determined by its official rating, agreed by the handicapper every week. Official ratings move up and down depending on how successful a horse is. If it wins a race the rating is likely to increase, if it loses it will either stay the same or decrease.

An official rating can be any rating between 0 and 140 for flat racing and 0 to 175 for jump racing. Horses are grouped together in races of similar ability so a horse with a rating between 0 and 45 will race in classified stakes with other horses rated between 0 and 45 whereas a horse with a rating of 60 could compete as a top weight in a class 6 race or a low weighted horse in a Class 5 race. As the official rating links directly to weight a horse rated 60 competing against a horse rated 70 will carry 10lbs less in order to even things up.

I have already scored the horse for weight so I am not going to give a score for the official rating of the horse. I am though going to pay careful note to the difference in official rating. For my second score on the tissue I like to see how the official rating has differed from the last time the horse ran and how it performed the last time it ran. Depending on how the ratings have moved I award points as below.

Let us look at an increase in rating first.

If the horse won its last race and the official rating has increased I take off 0.5 point for every 1 point the rating has increased.

If the horse finished in the places in its last race and the official rating has increased I take off 1 point for every 1 point the rating has increased

If the horses official rating has increased and it finished outside the places last time I take off 2 points for every 1 point the rating has increased.

Now let us turn our attention to horses where the rating has decreased.

If the horses official rating has decreased and it finished in the places last time I add 1 point for every 1 point the rating has been reduced.

If the horse finished outside the places last time and the official rating has decreased I add 0.5 for every point the rating has been reduced.

For horses where the rating has stayed the same

If the rating has stayed the same and/or if it is the first rating for the horse no points are added or subtracted.

Summary

For my second rating I add or subtract points to the first score depending on whether the official rating has increased or decreased since the last time the horse ran.

Speed Ratings

Punters either love or hate speed ratings. I know of professional punters who absolutely swear by them and yet others who ignore them completely. Speed ratings originated in the US where race courses tend to be very similar and so it was relatively simple to compare the speed of horses against each other even though they may never have competed together before. In the UK it is much more difficult as in the 60 race courses that there are across the country there are no two that are alike enough to be able to easily compare the speed of horses. However there are people who calculate speed ratings very accurately and use them to great effect and so if it works for them there is no reason for me to ignore them completely.

I use them as part of my tissue providing the race is run under a mile. To me speed ratings lose their impact on races over a mile as there are so many other variables in play but I know some people will disagree with me on that point.

I take a very simplistic view to speed ratings and use what is freely publicised on race cards rather than try to calculate my own. If every horse on a race card has got a speed rating next to their name I look at the difference in the rating between the highest rated horse and the lowest and then divide this number by 10. I then give the highest rated horse 10 points the lowest 0 points and the others a score depending on how they are rated between the two.

Let me show you an example using typical speed ratings that you will see on a race card

Horse               Speed Rating

Alpha Storm 93

Bravo Moon 92

Charlie Champ 83

Delta Brave 91          

Echo Dreams 88

Foxtrot Freddy 104

Golf Heaven 100

Hotel Paradiso 86

Indian Summer 99

Juliet Balcony 94

In the race card above the difference between the highest rated horse (Foxtrot Freddy 104) and the lowest (Charlie Champ 83) is 21 points. 10 divided by 21 is 0.47 which I roundup to 0.5 so for each point difference on the speed rating the horse receives a score of 0.5.

This is how the scores translate

Alpha Storm 93 = 4.5 points

Bravo Moon 92 = 4 points

Charlie Champ 83 = 0 points

Delta Brave 91 = 3.5 points

Echo Dreams 88 = 2 points

Foxtrot Freddy 104 = 10 points

Golf Heaven 100 = 8 points

Hotel Paradiso 86 =1 point

India Summer 99 =7.5 points

Juliet Balcony 94 = 5 points

Occasionally you will get speed ratings that are a huge distance apart. For example at the time of writing this there is a race at Newmarket where the difference in speed rating between the highest and lowest rated horses is over 50 points. 10 divided by 50 gives a point difference of only 0.2. If this happens then the same approach works although I may end up with a number of horses with very similar scores and one or two that are very different.

Summary

For the third score on the tissue I look at speed ratings, but only if the race is to be run under 1 mile (8 furlongs). Using a rating scale of 10 to 0 I award points to each horse depending on how it has been rated for speed.

Trainers

The skill, knowledge and experience of the trainer has a huge impact on how a horse will perform on the day.  In every walk of life there are people who through hard work, dedication, innovation and a healthy dose of luck rise to the top of their game. Horse racing is no different and though there are many trainers in yards the length and breadth of Britain slogging their way to a reasonable living from the sport, there is only a relatively small but well known group who are consistently churning out winner after winner on a weekly basis.

When looking at the results page on any given day you will see the same names time and time again next to the winning horse. Of course there are other trainers who win, a trainer would not stay long in the sport if they never turned out a winner, but there is a higher probability that on any race card the winning horses will come from the yard of the elite group of trainers who comprise the top 30. When looking for value I want to be paying most attention to their horses and providing they have recent success and have not hit a bad patch of results, which most trainers go through at some point in a season, these will be the horses that get the highest scores from me when creating my tissue.

To get the trainer score for the horse I look at the trainer’s percentage of winners over the last 14 days. Providing the trainer has sent out more than 3 winners, showing consistent success and not just a fluke result I award points in the following way.

Winning percentage of more than 12% but less than 20% = 1 point

Winning percentage of between 20% and 30% = 3 points

Winning percentage of between 30% and 40% = 4 points

Winning percentage of more than 40% = 5 points

I don’t want to ignore winning trainers completely if they haven’t had 3 winners in the time period, so if the trainer has had at least one winner in the period but less than three, or over 3 winners but a win percentage of less than 12% then I give the trainer 0.5 point. No winners means the trainer receives no points.

Summary

For the fourth score on the tissue I award points for trainers dependent on their success over the last 14 days.

Jockeys

There are around 400 jockeys riding in races across the UK on a professional basis. Broadly speaking these can be split in to two distinct groups, professionals and apprentices, who are called conditionals in national hunt racing. Apprentice jockeys are learning their trade. Because they are learning, and in the process of learning competing against professional jockeys, they are given a weight allowance of between 3lbs and 7lbs which allows for their lack of experience. This in reality means that if you have two horses with equal ability, one ridden by a professional jockey and one by an apprentice the horse ridden by the apprentice will carry less weight.  This allowance varies depending on how many races the apprentice as won. It stands to reason then the better, or should I say more successful apprentices, are the ones claiming less weight. Because an apprentice’s relative inexperience is evened up somewhat by the handicapper, when creating jockey scores for my tissue I treat apprentices and professionals exactly the same and look at how successful they have been over the last 14 days. 

For my tissue then I award points for jockeys as follows

A horse ridden by a jockey with a win percentage greater than 20% = 1 point

A horse ridden by a jockey with a win percentage greater than 25% = 2 points

A horse ridden by a jockey with a win percentage greater than 33% = 3 points

A horse ridden by a jockey with a win percentage greater than 50% = 4 points

Summary

For the fifth score on the tissue I award points for jockeys dependent on their success over the last 14 days.

Form

First of all what do we mean by form? Form is one of those words that is often mentioned in the context of horses and racing, but it sometimes creates an air of mystery, a kind of jargon that allows you exclusive membership of the horse racing fraternity if you know what it means.

In simple terms form is a record of a horse’s previous performance. Form can also include a record of the performance of any horse in the bloodline if we want to study it at a more detailed level. Form is what handicappers look at when determining the horse’s official rating and so as this as already been addressed in my tissue I purely look at it in its simplest guise. When I am giving points for form I am looking at how the horse has performed in the recent past over the same distance and ground as the current race. 

Distance

Horses are bred for certain distances. Some are speed merchants thriving in the fast flat races run over less than 1 mile. Others are middle distance runners excelling at the distances of between 1 mile and 2 miles whilst others are the stayers who can keep going for the horse racing equivalent of the endurance event which is anything over 2 miles.

What I am looking for on a race card is a horse that has performed well at the same distance on at least one previous occasion. By performed well I mean that the horse has finished in the places. I only look at the last six races and am more flexible the longer the race. For a sprinter there is a huge difference between a 6 and a 7 furlong race whilst for a stayer running a race over 2 miles 3 furlongs there is not a massive difference between that and a race over 2 miles and 4 furlongs.

Trainers will test their horses over different distances and I do not want to rate a horse highly if it has not been proven over the distance, or for races over 2 miles within 10% of the distance it is running today. When awarding points on my tissue I use the following approach.

Looking at the last 6 races

For each win the horse has had over the same distance (or if over 2 miles within 10% of the distance) it receives 2 points.

For each place it has achieved over the same distance (or if over 2 miles within 10% of the difference) it receives 1 point.

If it has never run at the distance (or for races over 2 miles at a margin of less than 10% of the distance) then I take 1 point off for every furlong between the current distance and the next nearest that the horse has run. This would mean that if the horse was competing in a race over 12 furlongs and it had not run a race beyond 10 furlongs I would take off 2 points.

Ground

The ground, or as it is more commonly known the going, plays a huge part in whether or not a horse is going to be successful on a particular day. The condition of the course will change on a daily (and in extreme weather) hourly basis and it is important to check what the going is before creating your tissue. Going ranges from heavy ground, seen after prolonged wet weather, to hard ground normally associated with a long dry spell. In to the mix you can also add all weather surfaces and you will find that different horses perform best on certain surfaces.

For my tissue looking at the last 6 races that the horse has run I award points in the following way

If it has won on the same going as today’s race it will receive 1 point for each time it has won.

If it has finished in the places on the same going it will receive 0.5 point for each occasion

If it has never run on the going or surface before, or never finished in the places I take 2 points off. 

Summary

I award points each time a horse has finished in the places on the same going and over the same distance as the race today. I take points off if the horse has not competed or finished in the places on the same going or over the same distance within the last 6 races.  

 Additional Factors

We now come on to the final part of the tissue in which a horse can gain or lose points. There are several other factors that for me will earn a horse additional points, or alternatively lose a horse points. These are a varied group of factors and so are treated individually. They include:

Beaten Favourites

If a horse was a beaten favourite in the previous race it has run there would have been a very good reason why punters would have backed it in to the favourite position. Although the favourite only wins on average 30% of races there is normally a very good reason why it didn’t win. Either the horse had a bad draw, the jockey made an error during the race or a problem showed itself with the horse just before or during the race.

Beaten favourites are highlighted on a race card with the letters bf. If a trainer has entered the horse in to a race where the conditions are very similar, and at least 14 days has elapsed since the previous race which will have given the trainer time to iron out any niggles, then I award the horse 3 points.

First Time Blinkers

Trainers will put blinkers on a horse either to help it concentrate or to ensure it breaks quickly from the stalls. If a trainer is issuing blinkers for the first time on a horse it is usually in the belief that this will improve the horse’s performance on the day.

If I see a horse on the race card that is wearing blinkers for the first time, denoted by b1, then I look to see where the horse finished in its last race. If it finished in the places then I will give the horse 3 points, if it finished outside the places then the horse will receive 1 point.

Penalties

A horse’s official rating, which governs the weight the horse will carry as a handicap, is decided on a weekly basis. Some trainers are very adept at running a horse quickly after a winning run before the handicapper has had chance to catch up with it and raise the official rating

If the horse runs before the handicapper has had chance to increase the rating it can be given a penalty. The maximum penalty a horse can be given is 7lbs which creates a massive advantage if the handicapper believes the horse should be raised much more than this.

I always take note of any horse on the race card which is having its second run of the week. If a trainer is running at horse on a Saturday for example when it previously ran on the Thursday there is a high likelihood that the reason for this is that the trainer believe the official rating will be increased the following week and therefore wants an opportunity to have another quick win before the weight the horse has to carry is increased. If the horse won its last race and is running again within the week then I award the horse 3 points.

The Draw

The draw is often overlooked but some race courses have a clear bias towards horses being drawn low or high in the stalls. When creating a tissue I want to know whether a draw bias exists for that particular race course. If it does each horse drawn in the favoured stalls receives an additional 3 points.

The Course

All 60 courses across the UK are different. Some, like Aintree and Plumpton are left handed courses, whilst others like Ascot and Newmarket are right handed. Some have sharp curves and gently undulating ground whilst others like Sandown have relatively steep final furlongs. Although they all share the same broad characteristics you cannot really compare one racecourse to another.

Because all race courses are different, horses perform very differently depending on the type of surface and the type of course. If a horse has previously won on the race course it is running at today then I award the horse 1 point for each win out of the last 6 races. If it has finished in the places I award the horse 0.5point for each time it has been placed on the same course.

Days since last run

Nothing can compare to a competitive race. A trainer and jockey can work extensively with a horse preparing it for the run but there are so many factors involved in a race that a trainer cannot replicate all of these in practice.

If it has been a while since the horse last raced competitively the horse can be at a disadvantage to others who have raced more recently. For my final score I take note of the number of days since the horse last raced and take points off as follows.

If a horse has not raced competitively for more than 60 days I take off 2 points

If a horse has not raced competitively for more than 120 days I take off 2.5 points

If a horse has not raced competitively for more than 180 days I take off 3 points

Working Out Odds

After I have collated all of the scores I will have the start of my tissue which will look something like this.

Alpha Storm 19

Bravo Moon 24

Charlie Champ 13.5

Delta Brave 20

Echo Dreams 13.5

Foxtrot Freddy 16

Golf Heaven              10

Hotel Paradise 15

Indian Summer 8

Juliet Balcony 9

To complete the tissue and get my prices for each of the horses I need to convert these scores in to percentages. The first step is to add all the scores up in order that l can work out the percentage chance each horse has of winning the race.

Adding the scores in the above example gives me a total of 148 which means I can now work out the percentage for each runner. As I work the scores out I need to round up or down to the nearest half percentage point. I am aiming to have a tissue which equals as close to 100% as I can get when I add up the scores.

Using the scores above I believe

Alpha Storm has a 13% chance of winning the race

Bravo Moon has a 16% chance of winning the race

Charlie Champ has a 9% chance of winning the race

Delta Brave has a 13.5% chance of winning the race

Echo Dreams has a 9% chance of winning the race

Foxtrot Freddy has an 11% chance of winning the race

Golf Heaven has a 6.5% chance of winning the race

Hotel Paradiso has a 10% chance of winning the race

Indian Summer has a 5.5% chance of winning the race

Juliet Balcony has a 6% chance of winning the race

Adding all the scores above gives 99.5% which for me is close enough to work out the odds for each of the horses.

Of course, to enable me to do this I need to be able to convert percentages in to odds. I have created the table below but many websites show this information and it is readily available.

1/5 = 84%

2/9 = 82%

1/4 = 80%

2/7 = 78%

1/3 = 75%

4/11 = 73%

2/5 = 71%

4/7 = 63.5%

8/13 = 62%

4/6 = 60%

8/11 = 58%

4/5 = 55.5%

5/6 = 54.5%

10/11 = 52.5%

Evens = 50%

11/10 = 47.5%

6/5 = 45.5%

5/4 = 44.5%

11/8 = 42%

6/4 = 40%

13/8 = 38%

7/4 = 36%

15/8 = 35%

2/1 = 33%

5/2 = 28.5%

11/4 = 26.5%

3/1 = 25%

10/3 = 23%

7/2 = 22%

4/1 = 20%

9/2 = 18%

5/1 = 17%

11/2 = 15%

6/1 = 14%

13/2 = 13%

7/1 = 12.5%

15/2 = 12%

8/1 = 11%

9/1 = 10%

10/1 = 9%

11/1 = 8%

12/1 = 7.5%

14/1 = 6.5%

16/1 = 6%

20/1 = 5%

25/1 = 4%

28/1 = 3.5%

33/1 = 3%

40/1 = 2.5%

50/1 = 2%

66/1 = 1.5%

100/1 = 1%

Converting the percentages to odds therefore gives me the final tissue, which I have shown below. Don’t worry if you can’t match the odds exactly if you are doing this as you are only using your tissue to guide you in the hunt for value. It is important to remember though that as you are looking for value if the percentage falls between two different prices you should always take the longest odds of the two.

My final tissue using the percentage chances above would look something like this

Alpha Storm 13/2

Bravo Moon 11/2

Charlie Champ 10/1

Delta Brave 13/2

Echo Dreams 10/1

Foxtrot Freddy 8/1

Golf Heaven 14/1

Hotel Paradiso 9/1

Indian Summer 20/1

Juliet Balcony 16/1

Comparing Odds

Once I have my tissue I can now compare my odds to the odds the bookmakers are quoting in order to see if I have the opportunity for a value bet. Let us assume that the best odds that the bookies are quoting are these as shown below:

Bravo Moon 7/2

Hotel Paradiso 4/1

Alpha Storm 5/1

Echo Dreams 7/1

Delta Brave 10/1

Foxtrot Freddy 10/1

Juliet Balcony 12/1

Charlie Champ 16/1

Indian Summer 20/1

Golf Heaven 25/1

Now on first glance there appears to be several value bets as the bookmakers have longer odds for four of the horses than I do on my fictitious tissue, namely Charlie Champ, Delta Brave, Foxtrot Freddy and Golf Heaven. A common mistake that many people make is in thinking that the best value bets are the ones with the longest odds, in this case Golf Heaven and Charlie Champ as these have the biggest difference in our favour in the prices the bookmakers are offering. For Golf Heaven the bookmakers are offering odds of 25/1 whilst I think the true odds should be 14/1. There is however little if any value in you backing a horse that you believe only has a 6.5% chance of winning the race. If you look at the tissue again you believe that 7 of the 10 horses have a better chance than Golf Heaven so why would you put your hard earned money on it purely because the bookmakers have it at longer odds than you? The reality is that neither you nor the bookmaker think the horse has a realistic chance of winning.

When looking for value in a race with over 9 runners I am only interested in those horses that are in my top three on the tissue. In this fictitious race that means Bravo Moon which I have at 11/2 and Alpha Storm and Delta Brave both at 13/2.

Comparing these prices with the bookmakers odds show us that they also believe that Bravo Moon is the most likely winner at 7/2. Those odds are far too short for me though as I think they have over rated its chances and so I would leave well alone. They have Alpha Storm at 5/1 which is again shorter than I would like so I do not believe there is any value to be found there either. The last horse I would consider is Delta Brave. The bookmakers have Delta Brave at 10/1 which I think is great value compared to my 13/2. I believe on the evidence that Delta Brave is highly likely to finish in the places so would be very happy to take an each way price at 10/1.  If all of the bookmakers odds for my top three were shorter or around the same as mine I would leave this race alone and move on to the next.

Points to Remember

I have now shared with you the sort of approach I take to creating a tissue in order to find value. It is one of many approaches that can be taken and I said at the beginning you should find the one that works for you. I am constantly reviewing my bets and revising my approach based on the results I get. Rarely a month goes by without me tweaking the scoring system I use as any system, structure or strategy needs to constantly evolve.

There is no value to be found in betting on a horse you do not believe is going to win, no matter what the odds. Every punter should write that sentence on a piece of paper and carry it in their wallet or stick it on the top of their computer screen. When looking for a value bet you should only bet on one of the horses that you have identified are the likeliest to win and are therefore your shortest odds. The value comes from the bookmaker who may believe that the horse has less chance of winning than you.

Always keep a record of your bets and the reason you made them. It is important that you know why you made a bet so that you can analyse what is and isn’t working.

Betting on horse racing is a high risk activity. There are no certainties in racing other than you have a greater chance of losing money than winning. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and keep your money for betting separate from your household and living expenses. To preserve your bank never bet more than 3% on any one outcome

Open several accounts with bookmakers so that you can take advantage of the best odds. Odds vary, especially in the morning and although one firm may offer no value another one may offer a good opportunity to bet. When a bookmaker gives best odds guaranteed you know that even if the price drifts after you have placed your bet you will get the starting price if this is longer than the price you bet at.

Always remember that betting above all else should be fun. If it ceases to be so stop, and if you can’t seek help. Although I bet most days I will take breaks often of a week or more to recharge my batteries and review my approach.

And finally

This book is intended for interest only. Nothing in the book should be construed as encouragement to gamble or as providing advice. The scoring approach I have used is an example only and not a recommendation.

I hope you have enjoyed this book. Below is a sneak preview of Success Factors, How To Win Consistent Money On The Horses. Available now.

I have yet to meet anyone who likes losing money. Whether it is dropping money in the street, making a bad investment or being overcharged for a product or service most people, and certainly everyone I know, hates to waste money.

Knowing that, it always surprises me that so many people bet on the horses, given that of those many thousands who bet every day only 2% make consistent profits. 2%. For every 100 people who bet regularly just 2 come away with money in their pocket at the end of the day, season or year. Even if, like me, they love betting on the horses that seems to me to be a complete waste of time and effort.

I am one of the fortunate 2%. I make consistent profits on my betting activity. To do this I don’t have special powers, lightning quick reflexes to trade different markets or a mathematical brain. What I do have, in spades, is discipline, an aptitude for learning and a strong work ethic to put the hours in when studying race cards in order to identify a suitable bet. With a deep and enduring love for the sport and a hatred of losing money I have been able to turn betting in to a profitable way of earning money.

This book covers the success factors and the strategies that I use on a daily basis when betting on horses. It will provide you with insights and information that you can use when identifying which horses to bet on. It won’t tell you which horses will win, and to be honest nobody can do this with any certainty though many people will take money off you by telling you they can. It aims to educate, and give you the information you need to select the horses that have the highest probability of winning on the day. It doesn’t claim to be anything more than that.

The book is structured in three sections. The first section covers the basics, what you should have in place before placing a bet. If you know the basics go straight to the second section, but be aware that many people who fail at betting do so because they do not have the strong foundations in place in which to build regular, solid profits. Section 2 includes the eight success factors I look for before placing a bet. Whether or not I place a bet depends on how many of the success factors are in place. All eight and I will definitely place a bet, only one and it is highly unlikely. Six or seven, probably, three or four possibly. There is no absolute rule because it can depend on so many variables on the day. The third section looks at the different staking strategies I use, whether and when I will place a single bet on one horse, what needs to be in place for me to wager an accumulator, when I prefer to lay rather than back.

There are of course no guarantees that my success factors and strategies will make me a profit. Betting is and always will be a high risk activity. I have never ended a year with a loss although over the course of my betting career some individual months have been losing months. My staking plans, and the disciplined approach I take to betting has always enabled me to weather the losing streaks until I get back in to profit. Although this book can be a guide you must always make your own decisions and only ever bet what you can afford to lose.

Alex Daly

Section 1

The Basics

I am often asked what a healthy return is when betting on the horses. There is no definitive answer. Do you want to gain a bit of extra money at the end of each week, save up for something special like a holiday in Vegas or earn a decent living from your betting activity? Although I don’t earn my living solely from betting, it forms part of my annual income and provides me with a nice pot of money at the end of every year. If you do want to earn consistent profits from betting, before you even have your first bet, you need to have the basics in place. Let us look at what these are.